DOW vs LYB: Dividend Comparison
Dividend data as of
Dow Inc. (DOW) and LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) are both in the Materials sector, making them natural rivals for dividend investors. LYB offers a significantly higher 9.40% yield compared to DOW's 6.25%, a gap of 3.15%. For dividend growth, LYB leads with a 5-year CAGR of 5.3% versus DOW's -6.9%. Both stocks carry a "Safe" dividend safety rating.
Verdict
Yield Analysis
LYB yields 3.15% more than DOW. In dollar terms, DOW pays $2.10/share vs LYB's $5.42/share annually.
Dividend Growth
DOW: Dividend growth is slowing — the 3-year CAGR of -13.4% trails the 5-year rate of -6.9% and the 10-year rate of 0.0%.
LYB: Dividend growth has been steady, with a 3-year CAGR of 5.0% and a 5-year CAGR of 5.3% (10-year: 5.6%).
Dividend Safety
DOW: The payout ratio of 7% is well within sustainable levels, leaving room for future increases. Earnings cover the dividend -1.8x.
LYB: The payout ratio of 11% is well within sustainable levels, leaving room for future increases. Earnings cover the dividend -0.7x.
Estimated Annual Dividend Income
Based on current dividend yields. Actual income may vary.
What does $10,000 buy in DOW vs LYB today?
At $32.60 per share, $10,000 buys about 306.7 shares of Dow Inc. (DOW). Each share pays $2.10 per year in dividends, so the position starts out generating roughly $644 per year — about $54 a month.
At $57.80 per share, $10,000 buys about 173.0 shares of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB). Each share pays $5.42 per year in dividends, so the position starts out generating roughly $938 per year — about $78 a month.
LYB is the larger income stream from day one: $294 per year more on the same $10,000 invested.
What could $10,000 of DOW or LYB income look like in 10 years?
Dow Inc. (DOW)'s dividend has shrunk about 6.9% a year over the past five years. If that trend continued, today's $625 per year on $10,000 (at the current 6.25% yield) would fall to $304 per year by 2036.
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) has raised its dividend about 5.3% a year over the past five years. If that pace held, the $940 per year that $10,000 generates today at the current 9.40% yield would reach $1,569 per year by 2036 — a 15.7% yield on the original cost.
On those trailing rates, LYB pays more in 2036: $1,569 versus $304 per year. The projection assumes each five-year growth rate persists and no dividends are reinvested — real payouts will differ.
When would DOW's dividend growth overtake LYB's higher yield?
It doesn't, on the trailing numbers. LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) yields more today (9.40% vs 6.25%) and has also grown its dividend at least as fast (5.3% vs -6.9% a year over five years). Unless DOW accelerates its raises or LYB stumbles, DOW never closes the income gap — LYB wins on both current income and growth.
Can DOW and LYB afford their dividends?
Dow Inc. (DOW) pays out about 7% of its earnings as dividends, which implies roughly 14.3x earnings coverage.
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) pays out about 11% of its earnings as dividends, which implies roughly 8.7x earnings coverage.
DOW's wider coverage leaves more cushion if earnings dip. As a rule of thumb, coverage below about 1.5x (a payout ratio above ~65%) is where a dividend starts to look stretched — worth watching for LYB if earnings weaken.
Which fits an early-retirement income portfolio better, DOW or LYB?
For income you need right now, LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) leads: $100,000 invested today pays about $783 a month at the current 9.40% yield, versus $521 a month from Dow Inc. (DOW) at 6.25%.
LYB also leads on dividend growth (5.3% vs -6.9% a year over five years), so the trailing numbers favor it on both fronts.
On consistency: LYB has raised its dividend 2 consecutive years.
Many income investors simply hold both — the mix pairs current yield with growth and spreads single-name risk. Whichever way you lean, dividends are never guaranteed; recheck the payout each quarter rather than setting and forgetting.
$10,000 with DRIP: projected annual income
If each holding keeps raising its dividend at its real 5-year rate and every payment is reinvested, a $10,000 position pays $558/yr in DOW vs $3,854/yr in LYB by year 10.
Assumes dividends are reinvested at the current yield and grow at each holding's trailing 5-year dividend CAGR. A projection, not a prediction — no price appreciation modeled.
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