JCI vs UNP: Dividend Comparison
Dividend data as of
Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) and Union Pacific Corp (UNP) are both in the Industrials sector, making them natural rivals for dividend investors. UNP edges ahead on yield at 2.08% versus JCI's 1.11%. For dividend growth, UNP leads with a 5-year CAGR of 6.1% versus JCI's -10.4%. Both stocks carry a "Safe" dividend safety rating. UNP is a Dividend Contender with 19 years of consecutive increases.
Verdict
Yield Analysis
UNP yields 0.97% more than JCI. In dollar terms, JCI pays $1.54/share vs UNP's $5.44/share annually.
Dividend Growth
JCI: Dividend growth is slowing — the 3-year CAGR of -29.0% trails the 5-year rate of -10.4% and the 10-year rate of -20.2%.
UNP: Dividend growth is slowing — the 3-year CAGR of 2.3% trails the 5-year rate of 6.1% and the 10-year rate of 10.3%.
Dividend Safety
JCI: The payout ratio of 52% is well within sustainable levels, leaving room for future increases. Earnings cover the dividend 1.9x.
UNP: The payout ratio of 45% is well within sustainable levels, leaving room for future increases. Earnings cover the dividend 2.2x.
Estimated Annual Dividend Income
Based on current dividend yields. Actual income may vary.
What does $10,000 buy in JCI vs UNP today?
At $138.79 per share, $10,000 buys about 72.1 shares of Johnson Controls International plc (JCI). Each share pays $1.54 per year in dividends, so the position starts out generating roughly $111 per year — about $9 a month.
At $260.92 per share, $10,000 buys about 38.3 shares of Union Pacific Corp (UNP). Each share pays $5.44 per year in dividends, so the position starts out generating roughly $208 per year — about $17 a month.
UNP is the larger income stream from day one: $98 per year more on the same $10,000 invested.
What could $10,000 of JCI or UNP income look like in 10 years?
Johnson Controls International plc (JCI)'s dividend has shrunk about 10.4% a year over the past five years. If that trend continued, today's $111 per year on $10,000 (at the current 1.11% yield) would fall to $37 per year by 2036.
Union Pacific Corp (UNP) has raised its dividend about 6.1% a year over the past five years. If that pace held, the $208 per year that $10,000 generates today at the current 2.08% yield would reach $377 per year by 2036 — a 3.8% yield on the original cost.
On those trailing rates, UNP pays more in 2036: $377 versus $37 per year. The projection assumes each five-year growth rate persists and no dividends are reinvested — real payouts will differ.
When would JCI's dividend growth overtake UNP's higher yield?
It doesn't, on the trailing numbers. Union Pacific Corp (UNP) yields more today (2.08% vs 1.11%) and has also grown its dividend at least as fast (6.1% vs -10.4% a year over five years). Unless JCI accelerates its raises or UNP stumbles, JCI never closes the income gap — UNP wins on both current income and growth.
Can JCI and UNP afford their dividends?
Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) earns $2.97 per share against $1.54 paid out in dividends — 1.9x coverage (a 52% payout ratio).
Union Pacific Corp (UNP) earns $11.98 per share against $5.44 paid out in dividends — 2.2x coverage (a 45% payout ratio).
Coverage is similar for both, so neither dividend looks meaningfully more stretched than the other on current earnings.
Which fits an early-retirement income portfolio better, JCI or UNP?
For income you need right now, Union Pacific Corp (UNP) leads: $100,000 invested today pays about $173 a month at the current 2.08% yield, versus $92 a month from Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) at 1.11%.
UNP also leads on dividend growth (6.1% vs -10.4% a year over five years), so the trailing numbers favor it on both fronts.
On consistency: UNP has raised its dividend 19 consecutive years.
Many income investors simply hold both — the mix pairs current yield with growth and spreads single-name risk. Whichever way you lean, dividends are never guaranteed; recheck the payout each quarter rather than setting and forgetting.
$10,000 with DRIP: projected annual income
If each holding keeps raising its dividend at its real 5-year rate and every payment is reinvested, a $10,000 position pays $41/yr in JCI vs $463/yr in UNP by year 10.
Assumes dividends are reinvested at the current yield and grow at each holding's trailing 5-year dividend CAGR. A projection, not a prediction — no price appreciation modeled.
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