COP vs XOM: Dividend Comparison
Dividend data as of
Conocophillips (COP) and Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) are both in the Energy sector, making them natural rivals for dividend investors. COP edges ahead on yield at 2.96% versus XOM's 2.64%. Both stocks show similar dividend growth rates, each around 11.1% over the past five years. Both stocks carry a "Safe" dividend safety rating. XOM is a Dividend Aristocrat with 42 years of consecutive increases.
Verdict
Yield Analysis
COP yields 0.32% more than XOM. In dollar terms, COP pays $3.18/share vs XOM's $4.00/share annually.
Dividend Growth
COP: Dividend growth is slowing — the 3-year CAGR of -9.8% trails the 5-year rate of 11.1% and the 10-year rate of 17.4%.
XOM: Dividend growth is slowing — the 3-year CAGR of 4.3% trails the 5-year rate of 11.2% and the 10-year rate of 6.6%.
Dividend Safety
COP: The payout ratio of 50% is well within sustainable levels, leaving room for future increases. Earnings cover the dividend 2.0x.
XOM: The payout ratio of 60% is well within sustainable levels, leaving room for future increases. Earnings cover the dividend 1.7x.
Estimated Annual Dividend Income
Based on current dividend yields. Actual income may vary.
What does $10,000 buy in COP vs XOM today?
At $111.65 per share, $10,000 buys about 89.6 shares of Conocophillips (COP). Each share pays $3.18 per year in dividends, so the position starts out generating roughly $285 per year — about $24 a month.
At $148.59 per share, $10,000 buys about 67.3 shares of Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM). Each share pays $4.00 per year in dividends, so the position starts out generating roughly $269 per year — about $22 a month.
COP is the larger income stream from day one: $16 per year more on the same $10,000 invested.
What could $10,000 of COP or XOM income look like in 10 years?
Conocophillips (COP) has raised its dividend about 11.1% a year over the past five years. If that pace held, the $296 per year that $10,000 generates today at the current 2.96% yield would reach $844 per year by 2036 — a 8.4% yield on the original cost.
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) has raised its dividend about 11.2% a year over the past five years. If that pace held, the $264 per year that $10,000 generates today at the current 2.64% yield would reach $760 per year by 2036 — a 7.6% yield on the original cost.
On those trailing rates, COP pays more in 2036: $844 versus $760 per year. The projection assumes each five-year growth rate persists and no dividends are reinvested — real payouts will differ.
When would XOM's dividend growth overtake COP's higher yield?
It doesn't, on the trailing numbers. Conocophillips (COP) yields more today (2.96% vs 2.64%) and has also grown its dividend at least as fast (11.1% vs 11.2% a year over five years). Unless XOM accelerates its raises or COP stumbles, XOM never closes the income gap — COP wins on both current income and growth.
Can COP and XOM afford their dividends?
Conocophillips (COP) earns $6.35 per share against $3.18 paid out in dividends — 2.0x coverage (a 50% payout ratio).
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) earns $6.70 per share against $4.00 paid out in dividends — 1.7x coverage (a 60% payout ratio).
COP's wider coverage leaves more cushion if earnings dip. As a rule of thumb, coverage below about 1.5x (a payout ratio above ~65%) is where a dividend starts to look stretched — worth watching for XOM if earnings weaken.
Which fits an early-retirement income portfolio better, COP or XOM?
For income you need right now, Conocophillips (COP) leads: $100,000 invested today pays about $247 a month at the current 2.96% yield, versus $220 a month from Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) at 2.64%.
On consistency: COP has raised its dividend 1 consecutive year; XOM has raised its dividend 42 consecutive years.
Many income investors simply hold both — the mix pairs current yield with growth and spreads single-name risk. Whichever way you lean, dividends are never guaranteed; recheck the payout each quarter rather than setting and forgetting.
$10,000 with DRIP: projected annual income
If each holding keeps raising its dividend at its real 5-year rate and every payment is reinvested, a $10,000 position pays $1,130/yr in COP vs $986/yr in XOM by year 10.
Assumes dividends are reinvested at the current yield and grow at each holding's trailing 5-year dividend CAGR. A projection, not a prediction — no price appreciation modeled.
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